RCB-Research: "We re-initiate our coverage of CA Immo with a TP of EUR 17.50 per share and a BUY recommendation. The company is fully on track to deliver on the implementation of its strategic program 2012 2015. Managements increased focus on the standing investment portfolio and a completely re-structured balance sheet provide a sound framework for our BUY call. We see upside potential based on our fair value calculation which relies upon both, a cash-flow based valuation method (FFO I) and an asset based valuation method (NAV). We also highlight several upcoming positive triggers such as the sale of the logistics portfolio or the monetization of the 16.8% stake of the main shareholder UniCredit.
 
Upcoming triggers: We regard the sale of the logistics portfolio or individual logistics assets as most important trigger in the short term. The sale could result in the payment of a special dividend or launch a share buy-back programme. We do not pencil in a sale of the portfolio or assets in our forecasts yet, given that there are various scenarios under which such a sale could be conducted. However we think that there is strong institutional investor demand for these assets. Furthermore, CA Immos main shareholder - UniCredit Bank Austria AG - has announced that they will monetise their 16.8% stake in the company through a structured process.
 
Strategic orientation: Strategic targets comprise the FFO I guidance of > EUR 55 mn for 2014e and a ROE of > 7% in the mid-term. Management will increase the focus on the standing investment portfolio and continue to dispose of non-core investments such as land plots or reserves. Further actions foresee an increase in the occupancy rate and improvements of operational efficiency. We incorporate the sale of non-core investments (land plots in Germany) into our forecasts and project a trading result of approx. EUR 6 mn in 2014e, close to EUR 10 mn in 2015e as well as 2016e.
 
Valuation: Our valuation is based on an (A)FFO method which mainly focuses on the standing investment portfolio. We also include our fair value estimate of the companys land bank as we think that especially the German market continues to offer a compelling environment for real estate development projects. Our second valuation method is the NAV method. We project revaluations of standing investments and developments. Usually our valuations within the real estate sector are solely cash-flow based but in the case of CA Immo we also give weight to the NAV method. We have examined the gross initial yields in the companys main markets (Germany, Austria and CEE) and reckon that these yields provide a reasonable spread above the respective risk-free rates. These yields are furthermore in line with our real estate risk premium scoring model. This finding is the main reason why we make use of an asset based valuation approach, also considering the small possibility of a de-listing or a take-over following the sale of the UniCredit stake."

CA Immo

CA Immo: Letzter Schlusskurs (Euro): 15.410, das ist der 12. beste von 151 Handelstagen (%-Perf.) , das ist der 1. beste von 151 Handelstagen (Preis) , Periodenhoch am 11.08.14 (Kurs: 15.410 Δ% 0), Periodentief am 14.03.14 (Kurs: 12.300 Δ% 25.28), 151 Handelstage, davon ↑ 72 → 8 ↓ 71 , Performance Periode: 19.64 %, Umsatz '14/'13: 190 %

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